The Ripple Effect - 9/2/25

The Ripple Effect

02 Sep 2025 — 4 min read

XRP begins September under pressure, trading at $2.75-$2.77 after breaking below key $2.80 support amid $1.9B in institutional liquidations since July. Despite bearish technical signals, whales accumulated 340M tokens in August, while multiple XRP ETF applications approach October decision deadlines with 85-95% approval odds according to analysts.

XRP Price Snapshot: $2.77 USD (-1.48% 24h) | Market Cap: $167B | Rank: #4

Market Update

Price Action: XRP declined 4% from $2.85 to $2.75 in the 24-hour session ending Sept. 1 at 02:00, moving across a $0.12 (4%) range. The cryptocurrency currently trades around $2.77 USD (-1.48%) with market capitalization stands at $168.5 billion, reflecting a 2.1% decline over the past week, while 24-hour trading volume is up 22.4% at $5.49 billion.

Technical Analysis: Technical analysis points to maximum 10% downside risk to $2.50-$2.60 range, with 200-day EMA providing ultimate support near current levels. Key support levels identified at $2.75-$2.77, with resistance at $2.87 and $3.05. XRP price prediction for September 2025 suggests a breakout attempt toward $3.42 if $3.00 support holds.

Institutional Activity: Major divergence between short-term and long-term holders. Institutional liquidation flows totaling $1.9B since July contrast sharply with whales accumulated 340M XRP over the past two weeks, indicating conflicting sentiment among different investor classes.

Key Developments

RLUSD Stablecoin Growth

Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin crossed the important milestone of $700 million last Friday, marking a major development since its launch in December of last year. However, most of this growth is happening on Ethereum and not XRP Ledger. DeFi Llama data shows that the RLUSD supply on Ethereum stands at $616 million, while that on the XRP Ledger is $85 million.

The distribution challenges highlight competitive dynamics, as Ripple Labs is generating over $28 million, as short-term US bond yields currently stand at around 4% from the stablecoin's reserves.

XRP ETF Developments

Approval Timeline: Multiple analysts project high approval odds for October 2025. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has put the chance of an XRP ETF approval at 85% for September or October 2025, while Market veteran Nate Geraci believes approval odds are "closer to 100%".

Regulatory Progress: The SEC's "Listing Standards" for crypto ETPs allows any coin that has futures tracking it for >6mo on Coinbase's derivatives exchange would be approved. Seven major ETF providers have submitted amended applications for spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively reviewing the proposals.

Key Dates: The SEC is expected to announce decisions on most XRP ETF applications by October 18-25, 2025, with Grayscale's being first on October 18.

XRP Ledger Technical Updates

XRPL Version 2.5.0: The latest update includes new amendments are now open for voting according to the XRP Ledger's amendment process, which enables protocol changes following two weeks of >80% support from trusted validators.

Programmability Enhancements: The XRPL EVM Sidechain is expected to go live on the devnet soon, promising a significant acceleration of programmability features in early 2025, bringing Ethereum Virtual Machine compatibility to the XRP ecosystem.

Enterprise Partnerships

SWIFT Integration: SWIFT, the backbone of global payments, has begun testing Ripple's XRP Ledger as it prepares to move to the ISO 20022 standard in 2025. This development could significantly impact XRP's utility, as international payments through SWIFT can take up to five days and cost $26 to $50 per transfer. XRP can do the same in under four seconds for less than a fraction of a cent.

Tokenization Growth: Dubai's government-backed real estate tokenization platform, launched in May 2025, recorded a 44% surge in tokenized property sales, with title deeds stored on XRPL. Additionally, Ripple's joint venture with Archax, Montis Group Limited (MGL), further accelerated this trend, tokenizing $55.4 million in assets by Q2 2025.

Notable Mentions

Analyst Predictions

Jake Claver (Digital Ascension Group): Claver argued that XRP is "programmed" to reach approximately $10,000 per coin for institutional efficiency, with targets of $1,500 to $2,000 by Jan. 1, 2026 under specific market conditions.

Black Swan Capitalist: Versan Aljarrah predicted that once XRP becomes the bridge asset for global financial infrastructure, $1,000 will mark the floor, not the ceiling.

Market Sentiment: Vandell Aljarrah emphasized that even at today's entry point remains a bargain, noting "When XRP goes higher, they'll be trying to buy again".

Traditional Finance Recognition

Forbes Analysis: Forbes cited a Finder expert panel in July 2025, which predicted that XRP would trade at $2.80 by year-end and $5.25 by 2030.

Institutional Custody: Bank of New York Mellon will be the primary custodian for the Ripple's U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin reserves, adding traditional banking credibility to Ripple's ecosystem.

Looking Ahead

September Outlook: September 2025 at $2.75 after 4% daily decline, testing critical $2.80 support. Analysts anticipate potential volatility as September seasonality and ongoing regulatory pressure in the U.S. add to caution: crypto markets have historically underperformed in September.

Key Catalysts:

October ETF Decisions: Multiple approval deadlines could trigger significant price movement
SWIFT Integration: Continued testing of XRP Ledger integration
RLUSD Migration: Potential shift from Ethereum to XRP Ledger usage
Programmability Launch: EVM sidechain deployment expected early 2025

Price Targets: Near-term resistance at $3.05-$3.30, with XRP price prediction target for September 2025 is $3.40–$3.45, reflecting nearly 15–20% upside from current levels if technical breakout occurs.

Sources

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. XRP and cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks including potential total loss, extreme volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Unless we have a formal advisory agreement, I am not acting as your investment adviser. Consult a qualified financial professional and conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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