$XRP

The Ripple Effect - 9/16/25

XRP consolidates near $3.00 ahead of Fed rate decision as Coinbase holdings collapse 90%, fueling supply squeeze speculation while corporate treasury adoption accelerates.

The Ripple Effect

16 Sep 2025 — 5 min read

Market Snapshot

XRP Price: $3.02 USD
24h Change: -0.15%
Market Cap: $183 billion (3rd largest crypto)
24h Volume: $4.59 billion
Key Support: $2.80 | Key Resistance: $3.07

Executive Summary

XRP consolidates near $3.00 as markets await the Federal Reserve's critical rate decision on September 17, with 94% odds favoring a 25 basis point cut. Meanwhile, dramatic supply dynamics emerge as Coinbase's XRP holdings collapse 90% in three months, fueling speculation of institutional accumulation ahead of potential ETF approvals. VivoPower announces a strategic move to procure XRP at up to 65% discount through mining token exchanges, highlighting growing corporate treasury adoption.

Market Update & Technical Analysis

XRP is currently trading at $3.02, down 0.15% in the last 24 hours, with the token holding above critical $2.77 Fibonacci support despite recent consolidation. Technical analysis shows XRP has rebounded from support near $2.80, facing immediate resistance at the $3.05–$3.07 zone, with the RSI at 55.53 signaling mildly bullish momentum.

The current price action reveals a stark divergence between short-term liquidators selling and long-term holders accumulating, creating conflicting signals for September's direction. According to technical analysis, the recent declines observed since August 27 have extended to the sixth consecutive session, with XRP exiting a flag formation to the downside.

Key Technical Levels:

Support: $2.80 (critical), $2.77 (Fibonacci), $2.50-$2.60 (maximum downside risk)
Resistance: $3.05-$3.07 (immediate), $3.30 (medium-term target)
RSI: 55.53 (mildly bullish)
Moving Averages: Trading above 20-day EMA ($2.95) and 50-day EMA ($2.91)

Key Developments

Supply Crisis: Coinbase Holdings Collapse 90%

Coinbase's XRP holdings have fallen almost 90% in just three months, according to new data from XRPWallets. At the beginning of the summer, the leading U.S. crypto exchange held around 970 million XRP in 52 cold wallets, but by mid-September, only six cold wallets remain active, each with about 16.5 million XRP, leaving the total close to 99 million.

This marks a 90% drop in XRP's available supply on Coinbase, which could set the stage for a major rally if buying pressure ramps up. The most plausible explanation of these large XRP exits is mostly linked to the eventual launch of an XRP ETF, with the odds of the SEC accepting an XRP ETF in 2025 now at a 94% chance on Polymarket.

Corporate Treasury Strategy: VivoPower's XRP Focus

VivoPower International PLC (NASDAQ: VVPR) announced that its digital asset mining unit, Caret Digital, has secured bulk discounts on additional mining rigs and will expand its proof of work mining operations. VivoPower will continue to exchange mined tokens into XRP as part of its dual-pronged treasury strategy, with a key objective to secure XRP exposure at the lowest average cost possible.

The company describes itself as undergoing a strategic transformation into "the world's first XRP-focused digital asset enterprise," with its new direction centering on the acquisition, management, and long-term holding of XRP digital assets.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Implications

Federal Reserve futures now imply a 99% chance of a 25-bps cut on September 17, boosting crypto as a dollar-weakening trade. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25 bps rate cut are now at 94.2%, with the remaining percentage expecting a 50 bps rate cut.

ChatGPT analysis suggests that lower rates mean borrowing becomes cheaper and money flows more easily into risk assets. For XRP in particular, this could mean more speculative inflows from traders reallocating from bitcoin or other traditional assets into established altcoins.

Notable Mentions & Expert Commentary

Jake Claver's Bold Predictions

Jake Claver, CEO of Digital Ascension Group, has reiterated his increasingly bullish outlook on XRP, projecting strong double-digit gains for the coin by the end of the year. While XRP trades just under $3 at press time, Claver sees price targets of $10 to $13 in the near term, believing XRP could even reach $20 to $25, calling it a realistic expectation.

"Market attention turned to ETF headlines after Jake Claver told the Paul Barron Show that XRP at $10–$13 is realistic, with $20–$25 possible by year-end," according to analyst John Squire's amplified comments on X.

Technical Analyst Perspective

Technical analyst Matt Hughes shared a chart showing a long-term Fibonacci extension that places XRP's next major targets at $8.30, $13.39, and even $26.63. At its current price near $3.05, that would represent a gain of over 773%.

Institutional Accumulation Evidence

Whale accumulation hits 340M tokens despite price weakness, while Glassnode data shows 1.71B XRP cluster at $2.81-$2.82 cost basis zone. Exchange reserves rose to a 12-month peak, signaling more supply on exchanges even as whales accumulated an estimated 10M XRP in 15 minutes during recent breakouts.

ETF & Regulatory Developments

Rex-Osprey's XRP ETF will launch on September 18 under a Registered Investment Company (RIC) structure, bypassing the SEC's 19b-4 process. Unlike spot ETFs, RIC allows derivatives exposure but may face tax inefficiencies.

The SEC postponed decisions on Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF proposal to November 14, citing extended review for custody and market surveillance risks. Over 90 crypto ETF applications remain pending.

Six XRP ETF applications are pending SEC review, including from Grayscale and Bitwise, potentially transforming institutional access and repricing XRP's structural demand.

Looking Ahead

This Week's Catalysts:

September 17: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and rate decision
September 18: Rex-Osprey XRP ETF launch
Ongoing ETF application reviews through November

Medium-Term Outlook: XRP price prediction points to $3.30–$3.50 if $2.80 support holds, with 95% odds for October XRP ETF approval fueling bullish bets. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently estimated that, within five years, XRP could capture 14% of the cross-border transaction volume currently handled by SWIFT.

Key Risks:

Failed defense of $2.80 support could trigger slide toward $2.50-$2.60
Regulatory delays or negative ETF developments
Broader market volatility around Fed decisions

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. XRP and cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks including potential total loss, extreme volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Unless we have a formal advisory agreement, I am not acting as your investment adviser. Consult a qualified financial professional and conduct your own research before making investment decisions.