The Ripple Effect - 8/18/25

Current Price: $2.99 (-4.24% 24h)
24h Range: $3.0735 - $3.1562
Market Cap Rank: #4
Volume: Elevated institutional activity noted

XRP slipped below $3 as the overall crypto market showed bearish signals, with the token experiencing a 4.24% decline in the past 24 hours. Despite the pullback, XRP remains well-positioned following the complete resolution of the Ripple-SEC legal battle and growing institutional interest in potential ETF products. Key developments include BlackRock's clarification on XRP ETF plans and concerning whale distribution patterns that mirror previous market tops.

Market Update

Technical Analysis: XRP has retreated from recent highs near $3.84 set in July, now trading around the critical $3.00 psychological support level. The beginning of July saw the XRP price decline by 2.96%. However, this was quickly followed by bullish momentum, resulting in an impressive XRP price rally. From July 6 to July 18, the XRP price surged by more than 65%.

Key Levels:

• Support: $3.00 (must-hold for bulls) and $2.60 (secondary support)
• Resistance: $3.84 (recent high), $4.20 (next breakout), with $6.00–$8.00 as potential longer-term upside targets

Market Structure: XRP remains within its long-term bullish trend, buyers are losing control of short-term price action. The failure to maintain levels above $3.10 has led to growing concerns about a deeper correction.

Key Developments

Legal & Regulatory Clarity

SEC Case Officially Closed: Ripple and the SEC have withdrawn all appeals, ending litigation and reducing regulatory uncertainty. The five-year legal battle concluded on August 7, 2025, when the SEC officially agreed to settle the case in line with President Donald Trump's pro-crypto agenda.

BlackRock ETF Stance Clarified

No Immediate Plans: BlackRock confirmed Aug. 8 that it has no immediate plans for a U.S. spot XRP ETF, disappointing community expectations. Jay Jacobs, the head of BlackRock's ETF department, said BlackRock was not planning to launch any new altcoin-focused ETFs.

Market Context: As of August 2025, at least seven firms, including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and 21Shares, have a pending spot XRP ETF application, with Polymarket odds for the SEC approving a spot XRP ETF in 2025 stand at 77%.

RLUSD Stablecoin Success

Strong Adoption: RLUSD launched successfully in December 2024 and built for enterprise use cases, $RLUSD delivers the security, compliance, and scale global businesses demand. The stablecoin has received an A rating and recognition of $RLUSD as the market's most trusted stablecoin from Bluechip.

Notable Concerns

Whale Distribution Pattern

Negative Flow Alert: According to data from CryptoQuant, the 30-day moving average of XRP whale flow has turned sharply negative. This is the same bearish pattern seen at the start of 2025 in January and February, when whale selling coincided with price peaks.

Historical Context: The 90-day moving average (90DMA) of whale flow has sharply turned negative, signaling renewed distribution from large wallets. This pattern mirrors activity observed in January–February 2025, when XRP hit a local top before experiencing a sustained correction.

Volume Indicators: Whale activity has intensified, with 720 million tokens sold within a 24-hour window, suggesting institutional profit-taking at current levels.

Notable Mentions

ETF Expert Commentary

Nate Geraci (ETF Store President): Has expressed confidence that BlackRock will eventually file for an XRP ETF, arguing it makes "zero" sense for BlackRock to ignore crypto assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market Analysis

Technical Analysts: Analysts see potential for XRP to reach $6-$8, drawing parallels to its 2017 breakout phase, though this assumes sustained institutional adoption and continued regulatory clarity.

Looking Ahead

Short-term Catalysts:

• ETF application decisions expected in Q4 2025
• Continued RLUSD adoption and integration
• Whale accumulation patterns for trend reversal signals

Key Metrics to Watch:

• $3.00 support level maintenance
• Whale flow reversing to positive territory
• ETF filing developments from remaining institutions

Risk Factors:

• Broader crypto market sentiment
• Whale distribution continuing
• Regulatory changes under new administration

Sources

1. Yahoo Finance - XRP USD Historical Data
2. TradingView - XRPUSD Price Chart
3. CoinDesk - XRP Price Analysis
4. CoinGecko - XRP Market Data
5. CryptoQuant - XRP Whale Flow Data
6. The Block - BlackRock ETF Statement
7. BeInCrypto - BlackRock Analysis
8. CoinEdition - Whale Activity Analysis
9. Mitrade - Technical Analysis
10. Business Wire - RLUSD Launch
11. Ripple Official Twitter Account

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. XRP and cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks including potential total loss, extreme volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Unless we have a formal advisory agreement, I am not acting as your investment adviser. Consult a qualified financial professional and conduct your own research before making investment decisions.