The Ripple Effect - 8/1/25

Market Snapshot

XRP Price: $2.95 24h Change: -8.0%

Market Cap: $175.98B Market Rank: #3

XRP faces a significant bear shake-out with an 8% decline to $2.95, falling from session highs of $3.17. Despite the selloff, institutional accumulation signals suggest this correction may be setting the stage for the next major move higher. Long-term fundamentals remain intact with RLUSD adoption accelerating and regulatory clarity improving.

Remember: This is not a day-to-day game. Bear shake-outs like these separate the committed from the speculative. Historical patterns suggest these corrections often precede the strongest rallies in bull markets.

Market Analysis

Price Action: XRP experienced its sharpest decline in months, dropping 8% in 24 hours with the most severe selloff occurring during the midnight trading window on August 1, when XRP fell 2.7% in a single hour on 259.21 million units of volume—nearly 4x its daily average.

Technical Levels: The $2.94 support zone held firm during multiple intraday tests, with aggressive dip-buying allowing prices to recover to $2.98 by session end. Resistance remains at $3.02-$3.05, with continued rejection likely unless spot inflows increase.

Market Context: The selloff comes amid broader crypto market weakness, with altcoins leading losses as traders brace for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Key Developments

Institutional Activity: Despite the price decline, 310 million XRP tokens have been accumulated during the recent correction, while large holders liquidated $28 million worth daily. This divergence suggests institutional players are using the weakness as an accumulation opportunity.

RLUSD Momentum: Ripple's stablecoin continues expanding its reach, with BNY Mellon serving as primary custodian and Aave V3 Ethereum Core market now supporting RLUSD lending with a 50 million supply cap. Q1 2025 saw RLUSD reach over $244 million market cap across XRPL and Ethereum.

Regulatory Progress: XRP is now part of the SEC's Generic Listing Standards, potentially easing approval for exchange-traded products as it nears the six-month trading mark for futures contracts.

Notable Mentions & Analysis

Jake Claver, Managing Director of Digital Ascension Group: "Dark pools are an invisible force holding prices stable, but one catalyst could trigger one of the biggest moves ever. At a certain point, demand on public exchanges will explode past supply—and that's when the market will panic to reprice itself."

Institutional Perspective: Claver's analysis suggests XRP may be experiencing heavy accumulation through private markets (dark pools), which could explain the price suppression despite positive fundamentals. This hidden demand could lead to explosive price movements once it surfaces on public exchanges.

Technical Outlook: Analysts note XRP's recent pattern mirrors its 2017 bull run structure. The current correction may be forming a double zigzag pullback before the next major wave higher, with targets ranging from $4.60 to much higher levels.

Ecosystem Updates

Real-World Assets: Tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger surged to $118 million in July 2025, representing a 2,260% increase from January. This includes Ondo Finance's tokenized U.S. Treasuries (OUSG) now live on XRPL with RLUSD settlement.

Partnership Expansion: Ripple's collaboration with Web3 Salon supports Japan's blockchain startups with grants up to $200K. The Axelar Foundation partnership expands XRPL EVM sidechain connectivity to over 80 blockchains.

Banking Integration: Ripple continues pursuing a U.S. national banking charter and Federal Reserve master account, which would allow direct reserve holding with the central bank and access to payment rails.

XRP's Technical Advantages Section

• Universal Accessibility: Only asset any account can receive without trust lines
• No Counterparty Risk: Native ledger asset with no third-party dependencies
• Pathfinding Priority: Algorithm prioritizes XRP liquidity for optimal routing
• Autobridging Advantage: Automatic bridging favors XRP pairs
• Essential Utility: Only asset used for transaction fees (constant demand driver)
• Freeze Immunity: Cannot be frozen unlike issued tokens

Ripple Swell 2025: Wall Street Comes to Crypto

Event Overview: Ripple Swell 2025 (November 4-5, NYC) at Convene Hudson Yards marks the first time this flagship event hits Wall Street—a symbolic shift showcasing Ripple's institutional evolution. The invite-only conference will host 600+ attendees from 40+ countries with 60+ speakers from the world's largest financial institutions.

Headline Keynote Speakers & Their Significance:

🏛️ Adena Friedman - Nasdaq Chair & CEO
Leading the world's second-largest stock exchange, Friedman will explore "the future of the financial system, digital assets potential, and tokenization evolution." Nasdaq's validation represents mainstream capital markets acceptance.

💼 Maxwell Stein - BlackRock Director of Digital Assets
The $10 trillion asset manager's crypto chief attending has sparked intense XRP ETF speculation. BlackRock's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF success makes XRP a logical next step.

🏦 Traditional Finance Titans:
• Ryan Rugg - Citi Global Head of Digital Assets, Treasury & Trade Solutions
• Sandy Kaul - Franklin Templeton Head of Innovation (tokenization expert)
• Carolyn Weinberg - BNY Mellon Chief Product & Innovation Officer (digital asset custody leader)
• Cynthia Lo Bessette - Fidelity Digital Asset Management Head (crypto ETF pioneer)
• Giovanni Vicioso - CME Group (derivatives and futures markets)

Why This Is Historically Bullish: Previous Swell events featured Fed chairs and presidents, but 2025 represents the deepest Wall Street participation ever. Past Swell events triggered 50-100% XRP rallies from major announcements. The convergence of asset managers, exchanges, banks, and custody providers suggests coordinated institutional adoption plans—potentially including XRP ETFs, banking partnerships, and payment infrastructure integration.

Historical Context: Swell 2017 featured Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, Swell 2018 had President Bill Clinton, but Swell 2025's financial services CEO lineup suggests XRP is transitioning from experimental to essential infrastructure.Looking Ahead

August Expectations: Despite historical bearish trends in August for crypto, positive indicators suggest XRP may rise toward its all-time high if key support levels hold. The $2.94-$2.95 range appears critical for maintaining bullish structure.

Catalysts to Watch: Ripple Swell 2025 building momentum (November 4-5), BlackRock XRP ETF filing possibilities, and reactions at the $3.00-$3.05 resistance band. Any breakthrough above $3.42 could trigger the next major rally phase ahead of the NYC event.

Risk Factors: Continued whale distribution, broader market liquidations (over $1 billion in total crypto liquidations recently), and potential deeper corrections if $2.94 support fails.

Bottom Line

Today's bear shake-out appears to be separating weak hands from strong ones, with institutional players quietly accumulating during the weakness. While short-term volatility continues, XRP's fundamental trajectory remains intact with RLUSD gaining traction and regulatory clarity improving. This is not a day-to-day game—patience and conviction are key during corrections like these.

DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities. XRP and cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks, including potential total loss, extreme volatility, and regulatory uncertainty. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Unless we have a formal advisory agreement, I am not acting as your investment adviser. Consult a qualified financial professional and conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Sources:

1. CoinDesk - "XRP Falls 8% Below $3 After Hitting Resistance"
2. Coinbase Price Data - XRP current trading metrics
3. CoinDCX - "XRP Price Prediction: Amidst market volatility"
4. Ripple Official - "Ripple Swell 2025 NYC Event Details"
5. Coinpedia - "BlackRock, Nasdaq, Citi Join Ripple Swell 2025"
6. Times Tabloid - "XRP Holders Connect Dots on Swell Speakers"
7. Digital Ascension Group - Jake Claver analysis on dark pools
8. CryptoRank - "XRP Accumulation and Technical Support"
9. CNBC - "BNY Mellon custody of Ripple's stablecoin"
10. U.Today - "Ripple Reveals Keynote Speaker at Swell 2025"