21Shares XRP ETF Preps for Launch: What TOXR Means for Institutional Crypto Access

21Shares is gearing up to launch its spot XRP exchange-traded fund under the ticker TOXR, marking a significant milestone in institutional cryptocurrency access. After filing its fifth amendment to its S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on December 8, the Swiss-based crypto exchange-traded product issuer has taken the final steps needed to bring its XRP ETF to market on the Cboe BZX Exchange.

The TOXR Details: Structure and Strategy

The 21Shares XRP ETF will track the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, providing investors with direct exposure to XRP's spot price without the complexity of managing digital wallets or exchange accounts. The fund will hold physical XRP in custody, similar to how spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs operate.

In its latest filing, 21Shares made strategic adjustments to enhance competitiveness. The company reduced its management fee from 0.50% to 0.30%, though it has not yet announced a fee waiver. For context, Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF currently offers the lowest management fee at 0.19% with an extended fee waiver period.

The ETF structure includes institutional-grade custodial arrangements with Coinbase Custody, Anchorage Digital Bank, and BitGo Trust handling the XRP holdings. BNY Mellon will serve as the cash custodian, administrator, and transfer agent, while Foreside Global Services handles marketing.

According to SEC filings, 21Shares plans to seed the ETF with 20,000 shares priced at $25 each, raising approximately $500,000 to purchase initial XRP holdings before trading begins.

Canary Capital (XRPC) - Launched November 13, 2024, with $58 million in first-day trading volume—the highest debut volume among 2025 ETF launches. Currently holds 169 million XRP in custody, leading the pack.

Grayscale (GXRP) - The second-largest holder with 104.4 million XRP locked in its fund, Grayscale converted its existing XRP Trust into an ETF format.

Bitwise XRP ETF - Holds 93.8 million XRP and has seen consistent daily inflows, with approximately $18 million flowing in on recent trading days.

Franklin Templeton (XRPZ) - With 78.2 million XRP accumulated, Franklin's offering features the industry's lowest management fee at 0.19% and the longest fee waiver period, making it highly competitive.

According to recent data, cumulative inflows into these XRP ETFs now exceed $600 million, with 16 consecutive days of net inflows recorded globally. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently highlighted that the total AUM across XRP ETFs has surpassed $1 billion, with nearly 498.41 million XRP locked in ETF vaults.

Pending Applications and Pipeline

Beyond the issuers already trading, multiple additional XRP ETF applications remain under SEC review:

• WisdomTree - Filed December 2, 2024
• CoinShares - Application pending
• Volatility Shares - XRP futures-based product with approximately $200 million in assets
• ProShares - Filed for both spot and leveraged XRP ETF products
• Rex-Osprey - Currently the only approved XRP spot ETF combining spot exposure with derivatives

Analysts project that if all pending applications receive approval, total inflows could reach $5-7 billion in the first year, mirroring the early success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

The BlackRock Question

One notable absence from the XRP ETF race is BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager with over $11 trillion in assets under management. Despite dominating both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF markets, BlackRock has explicitly stated it has no plans to file for an XRP ETF "at this time."

Important Context on BlackRock Speculation: Rumors about a potential BlackRock XRP ETF have circulated multiple times throughout 2025, including claims in April and June that were later debunked as false. Despite speculation fueled by BlackRock's Maxwell Stein speaking at Ripple's Swell 2025 conference, no official filing has materialized.

Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock's head of digital assets, has consistently emphasized that client demand remains "overwhelmingly" focused on Bitcoin and "a little bit" on Ethereum. Industry analyst Nate Geraci argues that BlackRock's absence could be "looked back on as a mistake," as avoiding XRP and Solana ETFs while competitors capture market share could weaken BlackRock's long-term positioning.

Reality Check: While some analysts believe BlackRock may eventually enter the XRP ETF market in 2026 if current products demonstrate sustained demand, this remains pure speculation. BlackRock has shown no indication of changing its stance, citing regulatory caution, limited client demand for altcoins beyond BTC/ETH, and a crowded competitive field as reasons for its hesitation.

21Shares: European Giant Enters U.S. Market

21Shares brings substantial credentials to the U.S. XRP ETF race. The Swiss-based firm manages over 40 crypto exchange-traded products worldwide and controls nearly 50% of Europe's crypto ETP market, with operations spanning Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

TOXR represents the first U.S. XRP ETF from a European issuer, giving 21Shares unique positioning. The company's track record includes launching the world's first staking ETP, demonstrating innovation in the crypto product space.

XRP Price Action and Market Impact

As the TOXR launch approaches, XRP is trading around $2.08-$2.11, according to current market data. The token has shown resilience above the psychological $2.00 support level, despite recent market volatility that saw Bitcoin drop toward the mid-$90,000s.

Market analysts are divided on near-term price action. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with XRP trading below its 50-day moving average after an 18% decline in November. However, some chartists have identified potential accumulation patterns and support structures around $1.94-$2.00.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, XRP must hold the $1.94 support level to set up a potential rebound toward $2.30-$2.50. He notes that this level has served as a reliable floor, with multiple bounces recorded over the past year.

The Liquidity Crunch: A Ticking Time Bomb?

One of the most significant—and underappreciated—dynamics in the XRP market is the rapid decline in exchange reserves, which could create a supply crunch if ETF inflows continue at current rates or accelerate.

Dramatic Reserve Decline

XRP exchange reserves have plummeted from $7.03 billion on November 10, 2025, to $5.70 billion by December 10, 2025—a decrease of $1.32 billion or 18.83% in just one month. In token terms, exchange holdings have dropped from approximately 3.9-4.0 billion XRP to roughly 2.6-2.8 billion XRP, marking one of the steepest declines in recent years.

Binance alone has seen its XRP reserves fall to approximately 2.7 billion tokens—multi-year lows—with over 300 million XRP withdrawn since October 6. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, most of these withdrawals are moving into private wallets and long-term custody rather than being positioned for selling, indicating institutional accumulation.

Why This Matters for ETF Demand

The shrinking exchange supply creates a critical mismatch with ETF demand. Since XRP ETFs must hold physical XRP—not derivatives or synthetic exposure—each dollar of ETF inflow requires purchasing actual XRP tokens from available liquidity.

Here's the math that should concern market participants:

Current ETF Inflows: XRP ETFs are recording average daily inflows of $12-15 million since mid-November 2025, with cumulative inflows exceeding $897 million as of late November.

Projected Demand: JPMorgan analysts estimate that XRP ETFs could attract $4.3-8.4 billion in net inflows during their first year, while other projections suggest $5-7 billion by 2026.

Available Supply Problem: With only 2.6-2.8 billion XRP remaining on exchanges (valued at approximately $5.4-5.8 billion at current prices), and institutional-grade liquidity remaining fragmented, even moderate acceleration in ETF inflows could exhaust readily available supply.

As one market analysis notes, "Shrinking exchange reserves combined with strong ETF inflows indicate that long-term holders and institutions are absorbing available XRP faster than it returns to the market."

The Liquidity Crisis Timeline

If current trends continue:

At $15 million daily inflows, ETFs need to acquire approximately 7.2 million XRP per day (at $2.08 per token). This equates to roughly 2.6 billion XRP annually—nearly matching the entire remaining exchange supply.

If inflows accelerate:

Should additional ETF approvals drive daily inflows to $30-50 million (comparable to early Solana ETF momentum), the timeline to exhaust exchange reserves could compress to mere months rather than years.

Lower liquidity typically increases an asset's vulnerability to large price swings, meaning that as reserves continue declining, even modest ETF buying could trigger disproportionate price movements. This dynamic has led some analysts to describe the situation as a potential "perfect storm for a price breakout".

Critical Caveat: This analysis assumes exchange reserves continue declining and that institutional sellers don't step in to provide liquidity. Ripple's monthly escrow releases and market maker activities could provide additional supply. However, the structural mismatch between shrinking visible liquidity and growing institutional demand through ETFs creates an unprecedented dynamic in XRP's market structure.

Market Context: Staggered Launch Strategy

Unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which launched simultaneously in January 2024, XRP ETFs are rolling out in waves—creating what analysts call "continuous catalysts" as each new issuer enters the market. This staggered approach means fresh media attention and potentially new institutional buyers with each launch, rather than one massive catalyst followed by consolidation.

When Bitcoin ETFs debuted together, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust eventually accumulated $40.8 billion in assets by year-end. The XRP approach differs dramatically, with each issuer generating its own launch momentum across several months.

Potential Market Implications for XRP

Important Disclosure: The following analysis represents market speculation and analyst opinions, not confirmed outcomes. Price predictions are inherently uncertain and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

Institutional Access Theory

The launch of TOXR could theoretically provide easier institutional access to XRP, as traditional investors can now gain exposure through standard brokerage accounts without navigating cryptocurrency exchanges. According to Disruption Banking's analysis, the structure enables "regulated custody, daily price transparency, and the ability to hold the asset in standard brokerage accounts."

However, whether this translates to significant price appreciation remains uncertain. Multiple factors including overall market sentiment, regulatory developments, and Bitcoin's performance will influence outcomes.

Supply Dynamics and Price Sensitivity

The combination of declining exchange reserves and rising ETF demand creates an unusual market structure. With XRP's exchange holdings falling 29% since February 2025—about 6.5 billion tokens withdrawn—and physically-backed ETFs requiring actual XRP purchases, reduced liquidity could theoretically create upward price pressure if inflows accelerate.

That said, market dynamics are complex. Whale activity shows mixed signals: wallets holding 1 million+ XRP sold approximately 13 billion tokens in one week, while mega-whale wallets holding 100 million+ XRP accumulated to their highest levels since 2018.

Price Forecast Divergence

Market observers hold widely varying views on XRP's near-term trajectory. ChatGPT-based AI models recently predicted approximately $2.02 for early December—essentially flat from current levels—citing bearish technicals and macro risks. Meanwhile, human crypto analysts have clustered around more optimistic targets of $2.70-$2.85 for December 2025, believing ETF inflows could drive demand.

According to cryptocurrency analyst Ripple Van Winkle, estimated day-one XRP ETF volume could range from $500 million to $1.2 billion in combined trading volume, with $50-150 million in net inflows and 5-20 million XRP in physical acquisition demand. He suggests this could create a "10-30% spike during launch week," though this remains speculative.

Reality Check: Price predictions in cryptocurrency markets have historically proven unreliable and are subject to extreme volatility. The divergence between AI models and human analysts illustrates the uncertainty surrounding XRP's near-term price action. Additionally, the liquidity crisis scenario assumes continued reserve declines without compensating supply from institutional sellers or Ripple's escrow releases.

Regulatory Landscape and Future Pipeline

The TOXR filing became auto-effective with Form 8-A on November 20, though the company is likely awaiting final CERT filing or SEC confirmation before trading commences. The regulatory path has been cleared following years of legal uncertainty stemming from the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple.

The SEC's new generic listing standards for spot crypto ETFs, approved in late 2025, removes the need for lengthy case-by-case approvals. This streamlined process could accelerate future XRP ETF launches, though a government shutdown in late 2025 temporarily paused all SEC ETF review activity, delaying multiple pending applications.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of additional XRP ETF approvals by end of 2025 has surged to 99%, reflecting strong market confidence in regulatory clearance.

Ripple Ecosystem Developments

The XRP ETF launches coincide with several positive developments for Ripple's broader business. The company recently raised $500 million at a $40 billion valuation and now counts over 300 financial institutions in its global payments network.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse noted that the company "signed more U.S. deals in the last six weeks of 2024 (since the election) than the previous six months," highlighting improved business conditions following Donald Trump's presidential election win and the appointment of crypto-friendly SEC leadership.

Additionally, Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin recently crossed a $1 billion market cap, while Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity service processed $1.3 trillion in transactions in Q2 2025, adding strength to the company's broader payments ecosystem.

What Investors Should Know

The 21Shares XRP ETF represents another step in cryptocurrency's integration with traditional finance. For investors considering exposure:

Accessibility: TOXR will allow XRP investment through standard brokerage accounts, eliminating the need for cryptocurrency wallets or exchange accounts.

Custody: Institutional-grade custody from Coinbase, Anchorage, and BitGo provides security infrastructure comparable to other approved crypto ETFs.

Fees: The 0.30% management fee is competitive but not the lowest in the space. Investors should compare across available XRP ETF options, with Franklin Templeton currently offering the most attractive 0.19% fee structure.

Market Timing: XRP faces technical headwinds with prices below key moving averages, though support around $2.00 has held. Near-term Federal Reserve policy decisions and Bitcoin's performance will likely influence XRP's direction.

Supply Dynamics: The dramatic decline in exchange reserves combined with growing ETF demand creates an unprecedented market structure that could lead to increased volatility—both upward and downward—as liquidity tightens.

Pipeline: Additional XRP ETFs from other issuers are pending, which could further increase institutional access and potentially impact supply-demand dynamics, though BlackRock's notable absence means the industry's largest player remains on the sidelines.

Conclusion

The pending launch of 21Shares' TOXR represents a significant development in cryptocurrency market infrastructure. As the first European issuer to offer a U.S. XRP ETF, 21Shares brings global credentials and substantial product expertise to a rapidly evolving market.

The staggered launch approach of XRP ETFs—with multiple issuers entering at different times rather than simultaneously—creates continuous catalysts for market attention. Early data showing strong inflows ($600M+ cumulative) and consistent institutional interest suggests growing demand for regulated XRP exposure, though price action has yet to reflect the optimism of bullish forecasts.

Perhaps most critically, the dramatic decline in XRP exchange reserves—falling $1.32 billion in one month—combined with physically-backed ETF demand creates a structural tension in the market. If ETF inflows continue at current rates or accelerate with new approvals, the timeline to exhaust readily available exchange liquidity could compress significantly, potentially triggering the kind of supply squeeze that leads to sharp price movements.

However, significant uncertainties remain. BlackRock's explicit refusal to enter the XRP ETF market signals that not all institutional players view XRP as a priority asset. Whale selling activity, technical resistance levels, and broader macroeconomic conditions all present headwinds. The pending SEC decisions on additional ETF applications, Bitcoin's overall market direction, and Federal Reserve policy will all play crucial roles.

Investors should monitor several key factors: XRP's ability to hold the $2.00 support level, the rate of exchange reserve decline, daily ETF inflow data, and the pace of additional ETF approvals. The coming weeks will reveal whether the combination of institutional interest, supply constraints, and regulatory clarity translates into sustained price momentum or if XRP faces further consolidation before any potential breakout.

The market structure is undeniably shifting. Whether that shift drives XRP toward new highs or simply creates heightened volatility around current levels remains the central question for 2025.

Sources & References

Primary ETF Filings & Regulatory

1. Crypto.news - 21Shares' XRP ETF: A step closer to launch
2. CoinGape - Breaking: 21Shares Gears Up to Launch its XRP ETF (TOXR)
3. MoneyCheck - 21Shares Set to Launch XRP ETF on Cboe BZX Exchange Under TOXR Ticker
4. CoinCentral - 21Shares Files for XRP ETF Launch as Price Struggles Amid Market Pressure

Market Data & ETF Inflows

5. U.Today - 21Shares Preparing XRP Army for ETF Launch
6. Bitget News - 21Shares Confirms Monday Launch for U.S. Spot XRP ETF
7. Benzinga - 21Shares XRP ETF Launches December 1 Amid Fresh Wave Of Institutional Demand
8. Disruption Banking - 21Shares Plants European Flag on Wall Street with First U.S. XRP ETF
9. TradingView - 21Shares XRP ETF Set to Launch on 1 December as ETF Demand Surges

XRP ETF Competitive Landscape

10. CoinPedia - Full List of XRP ETFs Awaiting SEC Approval: Dates, Filings, and What's Next
11. CCN - XRP ETFs Tracker: Spot vs. Futures Filings, SEC Deadlines and Pending Approvals
12. MEXC Blog - What Is XRP ETF? SEC Approval Status, Launch Date & How To Invest Guide
13. CCN - Crypto ETF Watchlist 2025: Key Filings, Top Players & What's Next
14. CNBC - Number of spot crypto ETFs may be about to boom after SEC decisions

BlackRock Analysis

15. CoinDesk - XRP News Today: Why BlackRock Might be Reluctant to Pursue a U.S.-Listed Spot XRP ETF
16. CoinCentral - BlackRock Rules Out XRP ETF Despite Ripple Settling SEC Case
17. Finbold - Will BlackRock launch an XRP ETF in 2026?
18. CryptoTimes - BlackRock to File for Spot XRP ETF Today: Fact Check
19. CoinGape - Will BlackRock File For An XRP ETF? Ripple Swell 2025 Presence Sparks Rumors

XRP Price Analysis

20. TS2.tech - XRP Price Today, December 10, 2025: Early U.S. Market Update, Key Levels and Fresh Forecasts
21. TS2.tech - XRP Price Today, December 8, 2025: Ripple Holds Above $2 as ETF Demand Tops $1 Billion
22. TS2.tech - XRP Price Today, December 2, 2025: Ripple's Token Clings to $2 as Whales Sell, ETFs Buy and Legal Clouds Clear
23. 99Bitcoins - XRP Price Forecast: Will Heavy Futures Activity Help XRP Maintain Its Range Above $2?
24. Yahoo Finance - XRP Price Target December 2025: ChatGPT AI Predicts $2.02 vs Analysts' $2.85
25. Coinbase - XRP Price

Exchange Reserves & Liquidity Analysis

26. Crypto.news - XRP exchange reserves shed $1.32b as price slips below key MAs
27. Finbold - Value of XRP reserves on exchanges crashes over $1 billion
28. CoinPedia - XRP Reserves on Binance Drop to 2.7 Billion Tokens, Marking Multi-Year Lows
29. Analytics Insight - Why XRP Supply is Falling Sharply on Exchanges: Here's the Reason
30. ZyCrypto - Perfect Storm Brewing — Binance's Shrinking XRP Supply Could Trigger Massive Ripple's XRP Rocket

Institutional Analysis & Market Structure

31. AInvest - XRP's Quiet Accumulation Beneath the Surface: Liquidity, ETFs, and the Road to $2.73
32. AInvest - Why XRP Underperformed in 2025: A Regulatory and Market Structure Analysis
33. XRP Right Now - 21Shares Just Refiled Its XRP ETF — TOXR Is Closer Than Anyone Realizes

Regulatory Updates

34. TradingView - Ripple News: New XRP ETF Deadlines Revealed
35. TradingView - Ripple News: New Report Reveals XRP ETF Launch Timeline

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